Effects of non-minimum wages on health: A narrative literature review of short- and long-run studies using causal inference or longitudinal data in high-income countries

Abstract

Objectives
We reviewed studies examining effects of non–minimum wages on health using causal inference or longitudinal data in high-income countries. We excluded studies on direct effects of minimum wages and on analyses using cross-sectional data without causal designs.

Methods
Our review covered studies from public health, epidemiology, social sciences, and statistics, and published between 1974 and November 2025. Searches were conducted in Google Scholar and PubMed and supplemented by reference and citation tracing. We defined short-run (≤2 years) and long-run (≥5 years).

Results
Thirty-eight studies met inclusion criteria: 20 short-run causal analyses, four short-run longitudinal studies, 12 long-run studies using causal or longitudinal methods, and two encompassing both timeframes. Instrumental variable models were most common, although many instruments (e.g., education and work experience) were invalid. Across 20+ health outcomes—most frequently self-rated health, mortality, and work limitations—results were heterogeneous. We identified recurrent methodological limitations and highlight priorities for future research.

Conclusions
Although findings lack consensus, most studies, particularly long-run analyses, report that lower wages are associated with poorer health, consistent with the allostatic load and Friedman’s permanent-income hypotheses. These findings carry implications for minimum-wage-and-health studies in which null findings predominate because those are only short run.